What do I think of Palin?
Several friends have asked what I think of John McCain's choice of Gov. Palin as his running mate. Here goes...
1. She's objectively a bad choice to be a potential president. Being a good leader is about having a set of skills / attribues, including (but not limited to) communication, negotiation, information gathering, priority-setting, management, and having a vision. Some people are born with some talent in one or more of these categories, but most politicians spend a lot of time learning them.
Compare Palin to Obama (she certainly has): Obama isn't so experienced, as far as politicians go, but he's proven to be a remarkably quick study.
Being a state legislator and then a senator were his secondary school and university of politics, respectively. Competing against the Clintons (formidable foes) in the primary was his graduate school. The nomination is his diploma.
I don't think that Palin has had that kind of education yet. My guess is that she is smart and tenacious but raw and under-informed about key issues. Given the likelihood that she could be president if McCain wins (historically, the chances are approximately 1 in 3 or 1 in 4), I'm not happy with her selection.
McCain must know all of the above, so I think we are forced to conclude that McCain picked her because he thinks she can help him win, not because he thinks she would be a good president.
2. So let's evaluate the selection on the basis that McCain did: Will Palin help or hurt his chances?
I think the answer is that her chances need to be considered over time.
Right now, she is in the most dangerous part of the race. She's undefined for most voters. One or two more stories about her upbringing / family could define her as some kind of lunatic. One or two gaffes could make her into John Kerry. Biden could eviserate her in a debate ("I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. And you, sir, are no Jack Kennedy."), and thereby define her as Dan Quayle. Obama could decide to turn the advertising guns on her and try to define her in any number of unflattering ways (I think this last one is unlikely).
If she manages to make it through these next few weeks without getting nailed as a lunatic, gaffe-prone, a lightweight, or something else, then I think she has a reasonable chance to help him. She's attractive, she gives a good speech, she's willing (obviously) to be very, very negative in a way that some VP nominees (John Edwards, for example) are not, and she does seem to fire up the crazies on the far right.
Overall, I give her a D+ as a potential VP and an incomplete as part of the Republican ticket.
1. She's objectively a bad choice to be a potential president. Being a good leader is about having a set of skills / attribues, including (but not limited to) communication, negotiation, information gathering, priority-setting, management, and having a vision. Some people are born with some talent in one or more of these categories, but most politicians spend a lot of time learning them.
Compare Palin to Obama (she certainly has): Obama isn't so experienced, as far as politicians go, but he's proven to be a remarkably quick study.
Being a state legislator and then a senator were his secondary school and university of politics, respectively. Competing against the Clintons (formidable foes) in the primary was his graduate school. The nomination is his diploma.
I don't think that Palin has had that kind of education yet. My guess is that she is smart and tenacious but raw and under-informed about key issues. Given the likelihood that she could be president if McCain wins (historically, the chances are approximately 1 in 3 or 1 in 4), I'm not happy with her selection.
McCain must know all of the above, so I think we are forced to conclude that McCain picked her because he thinks she can help him win, not because he thinks she would be a good president.
2. So let's evaluate the selection on the basis that McCain did: Will Palin help or hurt his chances?
I think the answer is that her chances need to be considered over time.
Right now, she is in the most dangerous part of the race. She's undefined for most voters. One or two more stories about her upbringing / family could define her as some kind of lunatic. One or two gaffes could make her into John Kerry. Biden could eviserate her in a debate ("I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. And you, sir, are no Jack Kennedy."), and thereby define her as Dan Quayle. Obama could decide to turn the advertising guns on her and try to define her in any number of unflattering ways (I think this last one is unlikely).
If she manages to make it through these next few weeks without getting nailed as a lunatic, gaffe-prone, a lightweight, or something else, then I think she has a reasonable chance to help him. She's attractive, she gives a good speech, she's willing (obviously) to be very, very negative in a way that some VP nominees (John Edwards, for example) are not, and she does seem to fire up the crazies on the far right.
Overall, I give her a D+ as a potential VP and an incomplete as part of the Republican ticket.
posted by Moses Kagan at
2:55 PM
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